Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
