Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
